Jets Nation Recap: Ondrej Pavelec shutout carries Winnipeg Jets into 4 game win streak

What was three, is now four.

The Winnipeg Jets hosted the Washington Capitals in what was both a fun and stressful game to watch for fans.

Chances were about even through the first two periods but Ondrej Pavelec out played Braden Holtby, with Pavelec stopping 28 shots for the shutout. Mark Stuart scored the game winning goal in the first, with Mark Scheifele getting the second for a two point night.

The Capitals pressed hard in the third with the Jets collapsing intensely around the net. Score effects took over and the Caps heavily shelled the Jets in the third with shots from the outside to no avail. Pavelec held on strong and Adam Lowry rang a short handed goal nearly full length of the ice away with Holtby pulled for the extra man.

Let’s break it down.

Three Keys

Killin’ Penalties – The Jets allowed their normal four+ penalties called against them against one of the top power play teams in the league. The Jets were able to limit this man-advantage powerhouse team to only three shots against. When you are doing that against the likes of Alexander Ovechkin, that is a good thing.

Pavelectric – Ondrej Pavelec’s past five games have been the fifth best of his entire career. This tells you two things. First off that Pavlec is on fire. Secondly, that Pavelec has been here before four times and eventually regressed to his career norms. Do not let variance fool you, but enjoy and cheer on Pavelec. No one holds a 0.955 forever. Expect regression while quixotically cheering against it.

Score Effects collapse – The Jets were severely outshot and chanced in the third, something that tends to be a bit scary. Teams want to avoid doing stupid things and end up with a odd-man rush against, but being too careful can cause issues too. Often the safe plays are actually more dangerous in the long-run than what they seem. It does not matter today though, since Pavelec shut it down.

Charts and Stuff

Jets Individual 5v5 individual statistics:

Individual scoring chances (iSC), shot attempt differential (Corsi +/-), non-blocked shot attempt differential (Fen +/-), and offensive zone face off as percentage of all non-neutral zone face-offs:

Screen shot 2015-03-21 at 6.55.12 PM

Shot attempt chart for all minutes:

chart (13)


Shot location chart:

Screen shot 2015-03-21 at 7.15.38 PM

(Courtesy: war-on-ice)

Gif Recap


Four game win streak? I think so.

  • muckerman

    You mentioned the Jets third period as being rather scary. I think almost EVERY third period that the Jets have the lead as scary — a dreadful “play it safe” mentality to a fault!

  • muckerman

    Love your stuff. Two thoughts

    1) How many Corsi events did the Capitals pile up during that one 1st period shift when it was Pardy-Harrison out with Slater and the 4th line wingers? Can’t think of any other good reason why O’Dell numbers are so much better than Thorburn and Halischuk, and why Slater’s are so much worse than his linemates.

    2) In you last(?) match report, you made mention of how Maurice had taken the responsibility of DZ starts away from Scheifele’s line. Seems like the reverse was true today. Any thoughts on that?