What return should the Jets expect from Kane?

When it comes to on-ice results, Evander Kane performs pretty well. He is a twenty-three year old top six talent and under contract for three more seasons.

Kane is young, good at hockey, and signed with term, a combo that GMs covet. While destiny is never certain, it does look like The Natural’s days as a Jet are numbered. 

UPDATE: Kane will undergo shoulder surgery and is expected to miss four-to-six months as he convalesces. 

What should the Jets expect in return for the young power forward?

Trying to come up with a historical comparable trade is an exercise in futility. There really is no comparable situation.

Jeff Carter and Mike Richards were sent away amid rumours of poor behaviour and inability to adhere to team rules; however, the two were more highly regarded (albeit Carter’s on-ice results were not much better and Richard’s were actually worse). While the media speculated about off-ice issues with the pair, it came nothing close to #Kaneghazi’s controversy.

Kyle Turris and Nino Niederreiter meanwhile fall on the opposite side of the spectrum in terms of perceived value. Neither of the young players had yet to establish themselves to the same level. Again, the controversy surrounding these players was not quite the same.

Evander Kane’s even strength numbers relative to some similar players

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Some guidelines and expectations can be constructed using basic reasoning.

General Managers will try to exploit Kevin Cheveldayoff. While potential bidding offsets some of the impact, every GM and their daughter/son/pet knows that Chevy’s options are limited. The manner and attention to how the situation unfolded handicaps Cheveldayoff’s leverage. The controversy may have reduced the number of potential bidders as well.

Cheveldayoff will have his work cut out for him. The general manager for the Jets carries an inactive reputation, presumably because he likes to get what he wants. His NHL trade acquisitions can be summed by Eric Fehr, Michael Frolik, Devin Setoguchi, and Jay Harrison. Given the context of Fehr’s bad luck and Harrison being an injury stopgap, only Setoguchi could be unanimously denoted as a dud.

We do know what Cheveldayoff wants. He has never been secretive of his wish to supplement the Jets with an additional top nine winger. He also knows that Jets are a team still building towards future contention.

Most likely Kane turns into a piece for now and a piece for later type of return, with picks equalling out any distance in value. The Jets timetable means that even the piece for now is likely to be relatively young. Chevy will likely be looking at a age limit somewhere around around 26-27.

 So, we’re looking at a likely young NHL player + decent prospect deal.

While the Richards and Carter deals fail at being comparable, extracting relevant information is possible. The most important part is that Jets fans should expect an immediate downgrade in player impact.

Player statistics season prior to trade:

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While Cheveldayoff is dealing from a position of relative weakness, the amount of interest in Evander Kane should create some up bidding. Chevy will most likely be looking for a package of one or two young players who can help the Jets in their projected window 2-3 years down the road.

In summary, we’re probably looking at a young player not quite as good as Kane, and then some futures to make up for that.

  • Stewsquared

    Thoughtful analysis. Refreshing given most coverage of tnis focuses on the soap opera elements of the story. A bit more analysis of possible trading partners and who the young prospects coming back to the Jets would be great.

  • The problem, as I see it, is trading a young forward in hopes of getting a young forward. If I’m trading with Cheveldayoff, I know he thinks Kane has warts on him, and could probably offer him a player of my own that I don’t trust rather than a player that I thought would match Kane’s potential. I think Chevy is in a better position if he pushes for a young left-shooting defenseman. Then he can avoid the direct comparisons between Kane and whomever is being offered, and maybe get a pick thrown in there. Pittsburgh, in particular, has a boat-load of young LDs (Maatta, Pouliot, Harrington, Dumoulin, Despres). It’d be a pretty nice deal if they could get a Dumoulin-Beau Bennett package or Maatta and a 2nd/3rd rounder or something.