May 29 2013 05:02PM
It only took nine minutes for my suggestion that the Jets badly need Ron Hainsey to meet resistance in the twitter-sphere. In this case, the argument came from Mitch Kasprik (@WpgJetshocktalk), a writer for Hockey Talk and THW (The Hockey Writers) and a long-time WHL Scout. When he talks, I'm inclined to listen. He wrote:
@nhljetsnation contract is irrelevant, he was overpaid but not his fault, even if he made 1m, it's still Hainsey, I'd rather play a prospect— Mitch Kasprick (@WpgJetshocktalk) May 29, 2013
Garrett Hohl (@garretthohl) from Arctic Ice Hockey came to Hainsey's defence, citing very difficult role. I thought it would be fun (you heard me, tables are fun) to have a look at the other defencemen who had similar years to Hainsey. More twitter battle and numbers below the break.
Who compares to the great Ron Hainsey?!
Okay - so how good was he? I had to start with some rules. i've been staring at Hainsey's stats all day, so I just made up a little list of rules that I thought fit his assignment this season. They are a bit arbitrary in that regard, so I've listed them below. The stats I want to compare as 'outcome measures' of success are: 5x5 points per 60, first assist % (% of assists that were 1st assists), offensive zone start/finish differential (zone finish % - zone start %), and relative corsi. I want to know how good Hainsey was at pushing the puck toward the opposition's end compared to other players in similar circumstances.
- Rel Corsi Quality of Competition between 0.8 and 1.5
- Offensive Zone starts <50%
- 5x5 TOI between 16 and 20 minutes a game
- PK TOI over 2 minutes per game
Agreed? If not, leave your thoughts in the comments and I can adjust our parameters.
With those rules in mind, who fits the bill? It's a pretty big and varied group (organized by quality of comp).
|NAME||TEAM||GP||TOI/60||Corsi Rel QoC||Off Zone Start %||SH TOI/G|
Okay. there they are. 21 skaters fit those criteria (or pretty much fit - I let in a few guys who were close). How good was Hainsey compared to the rest of the group? (Drum roll....)
- Ron Hainsey
- RelCorsi: 15th (of 21)
- Off Zone Start/Finish Differential: 1st
- EV Pts per 60: 12th
- EV 1st Assist %: T-6th
His rel corsi is weaker than the rest of the outcome variables I chose to look at, but he still fits in the middle of the pack. The raw data (sorted by Rel corsi).
|NAME||TEAM||Corsi Relative||Zone Start/Finish Diff||P/60||A1%|
So he's... not good? No, he's good? But not really?
I think it comes down to an issue of perspective with Hainsey. There are better defencemen out there, but of the 242 defencemen who played 10 or more games this year, Hainsey was among 21 who played a lot of hard minutes against top opposition while starting in their own end. In that 21, it seems he's in the middle of the pack for ability. But there are many ways to see that.
I think we can all agree with Mitch on this one: