Ron Hainsey Comparables Addendum

Kevin McCartney
May 29 2013 05:02PM

 Image by Elliot at Wikicommons

It only took nine minutes for my suggestion that the Jets badly need Ron Hainsey to meet resistance in the twitter-sphere. In this case, the argument came from Mitch Kasprik (@WpgJetshocktalk), a writer for Hockey Talk and THW (The Hockey Writers) and a long-time WHL Scout. When he talks, I'm inclined to listen. He wrote:

Garrett Hohl (@garretthohl) from Arctic Ice Hockey came to Hainsey's defence, citing very difficult role. I thought it would be fun (you heard me, tables are fun) to have a look at the other defencemen who had similar years to Hainsey. More twitter battle and numbers below the break.

Who compares to the great Ron Hainsey?!

Okay - so how good was he? I had to start with some rules. i've been staring at Hainsey's stats all day, so I just made up a little list of rules that I thought fit his assignment this season. They are a bit arbitrary in that regard, so I've listed them below. The stats I want to compare as 'outcome measures' of success are: 5x5 points per 60, first assist % (% of assists that were 1st assists), offensive zone start/finish differential (zone finish % - zone start %), and relative corsi. I want to know how good Hainsey was at pushing the puck toward the opposition's end compared to other players in similar circumstances.

Rules:
Rel Corsi Quality of Competition between 0.8 and 1.5
Offensive Zone starts <50%
5x5 TOI between 16 and 20 minutes a game
PK TOI over 2 minutes per game

Agreed? If not, leave your thoughts in the comments and I can adjust our parameters.

With those rules in mind, who fits the bill? It's a pretty big and varied group (organized by quality of comp).

NAME TEAM GP TOI/60 Corsi Rel QoC Off Zone Start % SH TOI/G
CARLGUNNARSSON TOR 37 17.12 1.422 39.8 2:35
SHEAWEBER NSH 48 19.4 1.372 42.6 1:55
ZDENOCHARA BOS 48 18.55 1.207 45.8 3:12
RONHAINSEY WPG 47 18.76 1.144 44.2 2:57
MIKEWEAVER FLA 27 16.31 1.116 48.3 3:19
ZACHBOGOSIAN WPG 33 18.81 1.115 45.3 1:59
DANGIRARDI NYR 46 19.58 1.079 47.5 3:02
JOHNNYBOYCHUK BOS 44 17.1 1.077 48.8 2:31
JONASBRODIN MIN 45 19.14 1.046 46.9 2:00
RYANSUTER MIN 48 20.51 1.04 49.9 2:07
ANDREWMACDONALD NYI 48 18.55 1.005 45.9 2:47
TRAVISHAMONIC NYI 48 18.16 0.991 45.9 2:44
BARRETJACKMAN STL 46 15.9 0.971 42.5 2:44
BRENDENDILLON DAL 48 17.75 0.96 43.2 2:35
ANDREJSEKERA BUF 37 17.24 0.95 47.1 1:51
JUSTINFAULK CAR 38 17.75 0.897 45.5 2:59
BROOKSORPIK PIT 46 18.34 0.891 44.2 3:10
TIMGLEASON CAR 42 16.26 0.85 43.4 2:48
DANHAMHUIS VAN 47 17.18 0.819 49.7 3:03
PAULMARTIN PIT 34 18.48 0.816 46.4 3:08
JACKJOHNSON CBJ 44 18.33 0.804 44.6 2:47

Okay. there they are. 21 skaters fit those criteria (or pretty much fit - I let in a few guys who were close). How good was Hainsey compared to the rest of the group? (Drum roll....)

Ron Hainsey
RelCorsi: 15th (of 21)
Off Zone Start/Finish Differential: 1st
EV Pts per 60: 12th
EV 1st Assist %: T-6th

His rel corsi is weaker than the rest of the outcome variables I chose to look at, but he still fits in the middle of the pack. The raw data (sorted by Rel corsi).

NAME TEAM Corsi Relative Zone Start/Finish Diff P/60 A1%
DANHAMHUIS VAN 6.6 2.8 1.11 42%
ZDENOCHARA BOS 6 1.4 0.94 81%
JONASBRODIN MIN 4.9 -2.4 0.42 17%
BRENDENDILLON DAL 4.5 6.4 0.49 25%
JOHNNYBOYCHUK BOS 0.1 -1.9 0.48 60%
CARLGUNNARSSON TOR -0.5 5.2 1.33 15%
SHEAWEBER NSH -2.1 3.2 0.84 45%
RYANSUTER MIN -2.3 -5.6 0.85 30%
MIKEWEAVER FLA -4.3 3.5 1.23 38%
PAULMARTIN PIT -4.9 1.9 1.34 56%
ZACHBOGOSIAN WPG -5 4.2 1.06 17%
JUSTINFAULK CAR -5.4 5.5 0.98 25%
DANGIRARDI NYR -6.7 1.4 0.73 20%
JACKJOHNSON CBJ -8.1 8.3 0.74 50%
RONHAINSEY WPG -8.7 10.3 0.75 45%
ANDREJSEKERA BUF -9 3 0.94 37%
ANDREWMACDONALD NYI -10.8 -1.3 0.61 28%
TRAVISHAMONIC NYI -11.4 -2.1 0.41 0%
TIMGLEASON CAR -11.5 5.6 0.7 37%
BARRETJACKMAN STL -15.7 5.6 0.82 57%
BROOKSORPIK PIT -18.1 1.4 0.57 37%

So he's... not good? No, he's good? But not really?

 I think it comes down to an issue of perspective with Hainsey. There are better defencemen out there, but of the 242 defencemen who played 10 or more games this year, Hainsey was among 21 who played a lot of hard minutes against top opposition while starting in their own end. In that 21, it seems he's in the middle of the pack for ability. But there are many ways to see that.

I think we can all agree with Mitch on this one:

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Kevin is the Managing Editor of Jets Nation. His work has been featured on Bleacher Report, The Sporting News, and around the Nations Network. An enthusiastic over-analyst, his background and interests are diverse, but you might notice he's obsessed with hockey. Track him down on twitter @kevinmccart or @nhljetsnation
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#1 garret9
May 30 2013, 01:24PM
Trash it!
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teehee!

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#2 The Last Big Bear
June 10 2013, 08:56AM
Trash it!
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trashes
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props

Lots of discussion over at Flames Nation regarding the value of advanced stats and Corsi when discussing defensive defencemen.

I think it started with an article about how Anton Babchuk (the Flames' worst defender) had better advanced stats than Robyn Regehr (the Flames' best defender).

Even when Regehr was a Canadian Olympic calibre player, his Corsi numbers were unimpressive. And they are even worse this season, when he was getting first pairing minutes with the defending champions in the conference finals.

It doesn't look to me like shot counting is a good way to measure the contributions of defensive defencemen (which is how Hainsey was employed this season).

I think the answer probably lies somewhere in zone finishes, GA/60, and even simple TOI

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