Weekly Thoughts

Kevin McCartney
April 11 2013 11:22AM

            

Every week or so, I have a few thoughts. This week I look at the Jets schedule and consider how hard things will be under re-alignment, look forward to the draft to begin our conversation about who the Jets might be in on, and give a preview of articles to come with a chance for you to shape how I look at the data. A smattering of my brainy output below.

SCHEDULE

  • Ryan Lambert discussed just how bad the Southeast Division is on Puck Daddy the other day. The big news - the rest of the East is a combined 74-39-11 against the Southeast, and as Lambert reminds us, the Jets have the hardest schedule in the division as things currently sit, but the 25th hardest in the league total. Playing against this division is a major advantage, and the struggles of the Jets this season have been masked somewhat by that reality (which I can attest feels like bitter news).
  • Combining the Jets record from this year and last, they are 21-13-4 against divisional opponents, 27-32-7 against other Eastern conference teams, and 8-9-1 against Western conference opponents.
  • Did I mention there's a re-alignment next year? Against teams from what will be their new conference (Conference B), the Jets were 3-4-1 last year. Two of their three wins came against Minnesota, who you might have heard got better.
  • 2014 ‘Conference B’ opponents’ combined record against the Southeast Division in 2011/12: 27-15-2
  • Bottom Line: The Jets are in a heap of trouble with this roster in a better division next year.

2013 DRAFT

  • If the draft was tomorrow, the Jets would have a 0.8% chance of winning the Draft Lottery and picking 1st overall. They would pick at #13 without hitting that 1-in-125 gold.
  • There will be lots of time to look in-depth at this year’s draft, but here’s a quick hits of some names you might be hearing around that 13th pick:

 

Craig Button’s April Rankings

ISS March Rankings

Hockey News March Rankings

McKeen’s March Rankings

Pronman’s Midseasons Rankings

#10

Max Domi, C/LW

Rasmus Ristolainen, D

Robert Hagg, D

Adam Erne, LW

Hunter Shinkaruk, C

#11

Nikita Zadorov, D

Curtis Lazar, C

Curtis Lazar, C

Rasmus Ristolainen, D

Ryan Pulock, D

#12

Hunter Shinkaruk, C/RW

Ryan Pulock, D

Nikita Zadorov, D

Valentin Zykov, LW

Pavel Buchnevich, LW

#13

Alex Wennberg, C

Hunter Shinkaruk, C

Adam Erne, LW

Anthony Mantha, RW

Robert Hagg, D

#14

Anthony Mantha, LW

Jason Dickinson, LW

Rasmus Ristolainen, D

Hunter Shinkaruk, LW

Max Domi, C

#15

Josh Morrissey, D

Valentin Zykov, RW

Anthony Mantha, LW

Mirco Mueller, D

Josh Morrissey, D

#16

Adam Erne, LW

Kerby Rychel, LW

Alex Wennberg, C

Robert Hagg, D

Adam Erne, LW

  •  Have a look at Pronman's Midseason Rankings link for a quick blurb on each player, or check out @ISShockey, who have been giving us 140 character scouting reports on each player in their top 30 all week.

Thoughts that May Go Somewhere Later

  • Tyler Dellow (MC79) wrote a great piece showing the improvement of the Oiler’s kids this year to argue just how inexcusable it is that the team is bad due to having poor depth players. We have poor depth players, too! Interesting for us is his second chart where he creates a sort of ‘Eberle Differential’ rating to show how bad the team would be if the kids were only as good as they used to be.
  • Our ‘kids’ are a little older, so the experiment is a little different for us. Still – can we guess who is driving the bus on shot differential for the Jets? Are they moving forward? And if not, what does that say about the ‘wait and see’ approach by management? We’ll revisit this with data soon.
  • How can we evaluate Marcel Comeau as the Jets/Thrashers Head Scout? Should he be our guy during a period in which the team hopes to gather NHL bodies through the draft almost exclusively?
  • A teaser: In his 8 drafts as Head Scout in Atlanta, Comeau used 63 picks, of which 20 have seen an NHL game, and just 12 have seen more than 20 NHL games, and 6 have seen 200 (so far). You’ll have to wait to find out where that ranks him.
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Kevin is a regular contributor to Jets Nation. His work has been featured on Bleacher Report, The Sporting News, and around the Nations Network. An enthusiastic over-analyst, his background and interests are diverse, but you might notice he's obsessed with hockey. Track him down on twitter @kevinmccart
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