#freeburmi

Travis Hrubeniuk
March 19 2013 09:39AM

Dear Coach Noel,

Enough is enough. It is time sir. It is time to get Alex Burmistrov back in the lineup. Listen, I hear you. I understand that he wasn’t buying in, he has not been acting in the mature, respectable way that he really should be, and you had to do something about it. I understand that the room was openly behind you in this, and heck, if he really has been that bad I was behind you for maybe a game or two. Your plan even worked! Four straight wins and a climb up the standings is more than enough evidence that your lineup is working.

Well, that is if you call 3 forward lines a real “lineup”.

Yes, Patrice Cormier probably did deserve a shot. He has played reasonably well out on the farm this year, and didn’t really get a good chance in the shortened training camp. But do you really consider playing 3:48 a game a fair chance? A mere 6 shifts a game? Can you really afford to have him giving the puck away in a fourth line role?

It didn’t work so well Sunday afternoon. His sloppy play did lead to Ottawa’s second goal in case you forgot.

Need more? Well, let’s play with some stats.

First, how about we take a look at what would happen if we did a simple swap. Burmi for Cormier. How do you think Cormier’s current line mates performance’s 5 on 5 change if you make this swap?

w/ Cormier

CF20

CA20

CF%

Tangradi

14.17

24.28

36.8

Thorburn

18.00

18.00

50.0

w/ Burmistrov

CF20

CA20

CF%

Tangradi

9.51

14.26

40.0

Thorburn

15.22

12.69

54.5

CF20 – Corsi for per 20 minutes of ice time
CA20 – Corsi against per 20 minutes of ice time
CF% - Corsi for percentage [Corsi for / (Corsi for + Corsi against)]

 

Looks to me like your fourth line might actually improve a little bit. I’m sure Chris and Eric would love the opportunity to play a little more. I mean, you did after all have Burmi averaging 16:05 a game before he hit the bench.

Now, what about the other forwards? I wonder how Alex compares to them. Let’s ask our friends at behindthenet how he compares to other Jet forwards 5 on 5 who have played at least 10 games:

Stat

Value

Player Rank

Relative Corsi

6.5

2nd

Corsi Rel QoC

0.317

6th

Penalties Drawn/60

1.0

4th

Off. Zone Start

55.6%

3rd

Off. Zone Finish

55.8%

2nd

This is what the guys at stats.hockeyanalysis.com had to say, when we compared Burmi to Jets forwards who have played at least 200 minutes at 5 on 5:

Stat

Value

Player Rank

GF20

0.692

6th

GA20

0.346

1st

TMGF20

0.729

7th

TMGA20

0.924

3rd

GF20 – Goals scored by team while player is on the ice per 20 minutes
GA20 – Goals scored against team while player is on the ice per 20 minutes
TMGF20 – The average GF20 of players line mates when not with him
TMGA20 – The average GA20 of the players line mates when not with him

 

And just for fun, here are his basic stats among all Jets forwards, from NHL.com:

Stat

Value

Player Rank

Goals

3

7th

Assists

4

8th

Points

7

7th

Points/Game

0.28

10th

+/-

+6

4th

You know what I see in all of this Coach? I see a guy who may not put the puck in the net as much as you may like, but who acts as one of your best defensive forwards. You often start him in the offensive zone against what is probably the other teams second line, and he generally keeps the puck down there.

I’m sure you will agree when I say that plus/minus is a pretty questionable stat, but hey, he only has 7 points and is still a +6. When you look at the fact that he is leading the team in goals against per period and is second in relative corsi, it is no surprise. The puck simply doesn’t go in your net as much when he is on the ice. In fact, when he is off the ice, the teams goals against per period sky rockets to .924, a stat the he is third on the team for.

Remind me, wasn’t it an improved defensive mindset that you wanted this team to have coming into the season?

Coach, I do like you and I respect you. I think you’re a funny guy, and usually, you have done things that I do understand and agree with. But right now Mr. Noel I do not agree. Give Alex a chance to show you that he can play the style you want. Let him show you that he is maturing, and that he is a major contributor to this team.

Please Coach, for the good of us all, just #freeburmi.

Sincerely,

Travis

271d6798e55ab2ad953f9584515497b2
I write things, you read them. Then tend to yell at me for them. It's okay though, I'm from Winnipeg. I can take it. If you actually do like what I write, give me a twitter follow here (@thrubeniuk): https://twitter.com/thrubeniuk
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#1 Kevin McCartney
March 19 2013, 11:11AM
Trash it!
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Great breakdown of what Burmistrov does for this team. I think he may have been a bit of a victim of Antropov's struggles on the PK that we talked about last week: http://jetsnation.ca/2013/3/11/jets-special-teams-woes-pk

Otherwise, I really don't get it. #freeburmi

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#2 Kent Wilson
March 19 2013, 12:59PM
Trash it!
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Think the Jets would move him? If so, what would the asking price be?

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#3 The Keystone Garter
March 19 2013, 01:35PM
Trash it!
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I'm Cgy wants to rebuild but go for a playoff run and keep Iginla next year, Burmistrov for the right to swap 1st rounders seems good. I like the Jets drafting. The AB teams really need goalies though. Been the best FW of the millenium; I'm torn whether to put Iginla on my team Canada. Mine is strangely short passing. So even though I like radically changing Canada's European tourney lineup by going Gelinas/Whitney (play G.Perrault, he plays like the Soviets said a coach), big passers like Iginla and Getzlaf get some consideration. R.Nash's 2005 pass to Thornton when Canada was being outplayed...pretty much makes him my 10th FW.

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#5 Kevin McCartney
March 19 2013, 04:24PM
Trash it!
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props

@Travis Hrubeniuk

I hope they don't move him. It's exactly the kind of trade a team can't win. They wouldn't move him if his value was extremely obvious and it's hard to say to a team 'sure we scratched him, but he's a high-end player for you.'

I think the forward depth on the roster is such a problem that Noel doesn't have anyone else to scratch if he wants to 'send a message' (however effective that really is). Burmistrov may have been made an 'example of' precisely because they aren't going to move him and don't have to worry about affecting his value, and because he's young enough for all involved to accept it as 'growing pains' instead of wondering if the coach is crazy.

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