#freeburmi
Travis Hrubeniuk
March 19 2013 09:39AM

Dear Coach Noel,
Enough is enough. It is time sir. It is time to get Alex Burmistrov back in the lineup. Listen, I hear you. I understand that he wasn’t buying in, he has not been acting in the mature, respectable way that he really should be, and you had to do something about it. I understand that the room was openly behind you in this, and heck, if he really has been that bad I was behind you for maybe a game or two. Your plan even worked! Four straight wins and a climb up the standings is more than enough evidence that your lineup is working.
Well, that is if you call 3 forward lines a real “lineup”.
Yes, Patrice Cormier probably did deserve a shot. He has played reasonably well out on the farm this year, and didn’t really get a good chance in the shortened training camp. But do you really consider playing 3:48 a game a fair chance? A mere 6 shifts a game? Can you really afford to have him giving the puck away in a fourth line role?
It didn’t work so well Sunday afternoon. His sloppy play did lead to Ottawa’s second goal in case you forgot.
Need more? Well, let’s play with some stats.
First, how about we take a look at what would happen if we did a simple swap. Burmi for Cormier. How do you think Cormier’s current line mates performance’s 5 on 5 change if you make this swap?
|
w/ Cormier |
CF20 |
CA20 |
CF% |
|
Tangradi |
14.17 |
24.28 |
36.8 |
|
Thorburn |
18.00 |
18.00 |
50.0 |
|
w/ Burmistrov |
CF20 |
CA20 |
CF% |
|
Tangradi |
9.51 |
14.26 |
40.0 |
|
Thorburn |
15.22 |
12.69 |
54.5 |
Looks to me like your fourth line might actually improve a little bit. I’m sure Chris and Eric would love the opportunity to play a little more. I mean, you did after all have Burmi averaging 16:05 a game before he hit the bench.
Now, what about the other forwards? I wonder how Alex compares to them. Let’s ask our friends at behindthenet how he compares to other Jet forwards 5 on 5 who have played at least 10 games:
|
Stat |
Value |
Player Rank |
|
Relative Corsi |
6.5 |
2nd |
|
Corsi Rel QoC |
0.317 |
6th |
|
Penalties Drawn/60 |
1.0 |
4th |
|
Off. Zone Start |
55.6% |
3rd |
|
Off. Zone Finish |
55.8% |
2nd |
This is what the guys at stats.hockeyanalysis.com had to say, when we compared Burmi to Jets forwards who have played at least 200 minutes at 5 on 5:
|
Stat |
Value |
Player Rank |
|
GF20 |
0.692 |
6th |
|
GA20 |
0.346 |
1st |
|
TMGF20 |
0.729 |
7th |
|
TMGA20 |
0.924 |
3rd |
And just for fun, here are his basic stats among all Jets forwards, from NHL.com:
|
Stat |
Value |
Player Rank |
|
Goals |
3 |
7th |
|
Assists |
4 |
8th |
|
Points |
7 |
7th |
|
Points/Game |
0.28 |
10th |
|
+/- |
+6 |
4th |
You know what I see in all of this Coach? I see a guy who may not put the puck in the net as much as you may like, but who acts as one of your best defensive forwards. You often start him in the offensive zone against what is probably the other teams second line, and he generally keeps the puck down there.
I’m sure you will agree when I say that plus/minus is a pretty questionable stat, but hey, he only has 7 points and is still a +6. When you look at the fact that he is leading the team in goals against per period and is second in relative corsi, it is no surprise. The puck simply doesn’t go in your net as much when he is on the ice. In fact, when he is off the ice, the teams goals against per period sky rockets to .924, a stat the he is third on the team for.
Remind me, wasn’t it an improved defensive mindset that you wanted this team to have coming into the season?
Coach, I do like you and I respect you. I think you’re a funny guy, and usually, you have done things that I do understand and agree with. But right now Mr. Noel I do not agree. Give Alex a chance to show you that he can play the style you want. Let him show you that he is maturing, and that he is a major contributor to this team.
Please Coach, for the good of us all, just #freeburmi.
Sincerely,
Travis
Great breakdown of what Burmistrov does for this team. I think he may have been a bit of a victim of Antropov's struggles on the PK that we talked about last week: http://jetsnation.ca/2013/3/11/jets-special-teams-woes-pk
Otherwise, I really don't get it. #freeburmi
Think the Jets would move him? If so, what would the asking price be?
I'm Cgy wants to rebuild but go for a playoff run and keep Iginla next year, Burmistrov for the right to swap 1st rounders seems good. I like the Jets drafting. The AB teams really need goalies though. Been the best FW of the millenium; I'm torn whether to put Iginla on my team Canada. Mine is strangely short passing. So even though I like radically changing Canada's European tourney lineup by going Gelinas/Whitney (play G.Perrault, he plays like the Soviets said a coach), big passers like Iginla and Getzlaf get some consideration. R.Nash's 2005 pass to Thornton when Canada was being outplayed...pretty much makes him my 10th FW.
I would be shocked if the Jets moved him. He's an RFA at the end of the year, and despite the current issue, Cheveldayoff has hinted that long term Burmi is sticking around.
Right now I don't think his value is high enough alone to really warrant a trade regardless. Nor are the Jets in any position to move draft picks. Therefore, if he was to move, it would have to be in a package deal with a player like Clitsome or Postma, should a valuable forward come available.
@Travis Hrubeniuk
I hope they don't move him. It's exactly the kind of trade a team can't win. They wouldn't move him if his value was extremely obvious and it's hard to say to a team 'sure we scratched him, but he's a high-end player for you.'
I think the forward depth on the roster is such a problem that Noel doesn't have anyone else to scratch if he wants to 'send a message' (however effective that really is). Burmistrov may have been made an 'example of' precisely because they aren't going to move him and don't have to worry about affecting his value, and because he's young enough for all involved to accept it as 'growing pains' instead of wondering if the coach is crazy.