Toronto Maple Leafs (15-12-1) vs

Your Winnipeg Jets (14-11-2) 

Preview

After a high-tempo, frenetic win over Toronto on Tuesday, the Jets are landing in the centre of the universe just one point back of the Leafs for 7th place in the East. No doubt we'll hear a lot today about teams going in different directions - and it's hard to ignore a Jets team with wins in 10 of their last 13, and similarly hard not to notice when a Toronto team starts struggling, especially when the coach refuses to ice what seems to be the best possible roster, or even acknowledge who his best players are. Still, the real story of the game is likely to be that of a changed system on the part of the Jets and goaltending at both ends. 

This will be the final installment of the three-game season series between the Jets and Leafs. The first matchup was Febuary 7 - a come-from-behind 3-2 win for the Leafs. On the morning of Febuary 8, the Jets led the NHL in points by defencemen with 34 in just 10 games. Just for comparison sake, Toronto had quite literally half as many (18) points by defencemen in one more game to that point in the season. Injuries to Byfuglien (briefly), Enstrom, and Redmond, as well as Postma losing his roster spot to a returning (and better, don't get me wrong) Bogosian have required the Jets change how their offence is created. In 17 games since meeting the Leafs in Febuary, the Jets have just 27 points by defencemen. Again, for frame of reference, Toronto has 47 in their last 17. 

While this alone may seem coincidental, the Jets have shown a clear focus on getting pucks and bodies down low of late, generating offence from low in the offensive zone. Their energetic forecheck in Tuesday's game arguably kept the play away from Toronto's (mostly) capable forwards and on their (mostly) incapable defencemen. The Jets registered 34 shots, with 4 goals by big bodied players, and a Wellwood back-door play created by Byfuglien and Antropov tossing their weight around down low. Tonight's installment of the series may be about whether that newer system for the Jets is more effective against the Leafs than the last. 

On the Toronto side, users of advanced metrics (or 'fancy stats') have been telling us of Toronto's bubble all year. Their shot differential is Buffalo level bad this year (heh), and their Fenwick and Corsi % (measures of territory and possession) are bottom 5 in the league. We're talking Edmonton and Columbus territory. How are they winning? Well, their shooting % is top 5, and they're not. In February, Toronto's save % also spiked into the top 5 of the league. Together, their shooting and save % showed an unsustainable run of luck. 

That said, remember this shot? Holy crap. In one 60-minute chunk of hockey, Fenwick% isn't the only variable, and it may come down to Pavlevec shutting out Toronto's snipers and not letting the Leafs win on the scoreboard in spite of themselves.

By the Numbers

Lineups

Your Winnipeg Jets

Toronto Maple Leafs

Coach’s Coaching

Jets

Leafs