Pavelec Performance Tracker: 25 Game Update

Travis Hrubeniuk
November 25 2013 01:59AM

There has been a 2-1/2 year debate raging among Jets fans and pundits about whether Ondrej Pavelec or the team's less than stellar defence is the cause of the team's inflated goals against. This season, I've been paying close attention to the context of every goal scored against the Jets, as well as the location of the goals in the hopes of providing new insight into that debate.

Today, we look at the results and my interpretation at the 25 game mark of the season.

Basics

Goalie

Shots Faced

Goals Against

Saves

Save Percent

Pavelec

642

58

584

0.910

Montoya

160

14

146

0.913

First of all, I want to address something. My numbers somehow don’t match up with NHL.com’s. They have two less goals scored on Pavelec than I do, which means his save percentage reads as .913, while I have .910. I went back and checked every individual game, and I haven’t been off yet. Take this all as you will, but I’m certain that I have the right total.

Pavelec has had an interesting season. He started strong, dropped off hard for a couple weeks, but then bounced back with a few good games after Al Montoya threatened his job. I believe it to be imperative that Al Montoya takes on more of the workload if the Jets want to see Pav maintain his current pace, but I am far from certain that we will see that decision making from Coach Noel. Al Montoya has been solid in the games he has played, but he is nothing more than a backup goaltender. It would be foolish to expect more from him.

Situations

Pavelec

Situation

Goals Against

Percentage

Jets PK

15

25.9%

Jets PP

2

3.4%

Odd Man Rush

6

10.3%

Sustained Pressure

10

17.2%

Average Play

13

22.4%

Skilled Play

1

1.7%

Turnover

9

15.5%

**For clarification purposes, an “average play” includes any basic breakout, faceoff loss, controlled zone entry, dump-in, etc. and a “skilled” play is any play that was created due to a highly skilled move that created an opening

The Jets penalty kill remains as the number one situation costing Jets goals. Considering how many penalties the Jets take (they have taken the third most penalties in the league with 96), that is not very surprising.

What does bother me though, is that sloppy play by the team (turnovers and odd man rushes), constitute 25.8% of the goals scored against the Jets. Yes, some of the blame on those goals falls on Pavelec’s shoulders, but those are situations that are completely preventable.

Add on the 17.2% that is caused by sustained pressure, and you have a large portion of goals against that could be limited by better overall play. THAT BEING SAID, there are situations following sustained pressure that you need your goalie to come up with a save. Similarly, a solid 22.4% of opponent goals have come off of plays that were nothing more than average. There’s room to improve on both sides here.

Montoya

Situation

Goals Against

Percentage

Jets PK

1

7.1%

Jets PP

2

14.3%

Odd Man Rush

2

14.3%

Sustained Pressure

5

35.7%

Average Play

2

14.3%

Skilled Play

0

0.0%

Turnover

2

14.3%

**For clarification purposes, an “average play” includes any basic breakout, faceoff loss, controlled zone entry, dump-in, etc. and a “skilled” play is any play that was created due to a highly skilled move that created an opening

An additional 5 goals against due to sustained pressure here further displays how the Jets lack of puck possession has cost them on the score sheet. Outside of that, it’s pretty difficult to make any true determination of Montoya’s play from these numbers. He needs to play more first.

Reasons

Pavelec

Reason It Went In

Goals Against

Percentage

Bad Break

10

17.2%

Out of Position

7

12.1%

No Chance

2

3.4%

Rebound

10

17.2%

Beat Clean (Pavelec)

12

20.7%

Beat Clean

15

25.9%

**“Bad breaks” include deflections, high volumes of traffic in front, etc., “Beat Clean” vs. “Beat Clean (Pavelec)” signifies if the goal was deemed by me to be realistically stoppable or not by the goaltender

Things look a little less excusable for Pavelec here. A staggering 32.8% of goals scored on him were directly deemed to be his fault (out of position or beat clean (Pavelec)), and an additional 17.2% have occurred because of rebounds. Pavelec has performed better than his usual this year, but we still see the same mistakes that have hampered him previously.

One thing that has always bothered me about Pavelec and his fans are the misconceptions that come from his “highlight reel” saves. I have repeatedly stated that they often come following a mistake of his (usually due to being out of position), but a perfect example of this came in Saturday’s game against the Wild:

Was this a big save? Of course it was. Was it completely unnecessary and avoidable? Yup. If Pavelec makes the simple save and holds onto the puck following the clean shot from the point, the dramatic pad save is not needed. If that puck is raised at all it’s in the back of the net. It’s these sorts of things that drive me crazy about Pav, and the things that I would hope TNSE notices before they sign a goaltender long term.

Montoya

Reason It Went In

Goals Against

Percentage

Bad Break

4

28.6%

Out of Position

2

14.3%

No Chance

2

14.3%

Rebound

1

7.1%

Beat Clean (Montoya)

1

7.1%

Beat Clean

4

28.6%

**“Bad breaks” include deflections, high volumes of traffic in front, etc., “Beat Clean” vs. “Beat Clean (Montoya)” signifies if the goal was deemed by me to be realistically stoppable or not by the goaltender

Montoya on the other hand, looks a lot sturdier in net by these numbers. Again the sample size is a little small to make any true determinations, but only three of the goals against him (plus one rebound) are directly on his shoulders.

Location

Pavelec

Where It Went

Goals Against

Percentage

Five Hole

4

6.9%

Glove Hand

12

20.7%

Blocker

20

34.5%

Pads

11

19.0%

Open Net

9

15.5%

Pavelec’s blocker continues to be his biggest nemesis. A big concern to me though, is how many goals are scored into an open net. Although some come due to bad bounces, the majority are due to Pavelec being out of position. It seems Pavelec has not really been affected by the reduction in pad size. He is an athletic goaltender, and that is shown in his ability to use his legs to make saves.

Montoya

Where It Went

Goals Against

Percentage

Five Hole

1

7.1%

Glove Hand

8

57.1%

Blocker

1

7.1%

Pads

1

7.1%

Open Net

3

21.4%

Yikes Monty, that glove hand is a killer. Outside of that, Montoya doesn’t have another regularly decimated location, but holy smokes.

Conclusion

To this point of the season, Ondrej Pavelec has not been the Jets' biggest problem. Interpret that as you will, but I am looking at it as an indication as to how bad this team really has been at times. He is still a below average goaltender, despite the fact that he is currently having one of the better years of his career. I still feel that the Jets need to improve in net if they want to have long term success, but I am more willing to admit that he is not the key issue preventing this team from taking a step forward at this time.

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I write things, you read them. Then tend to yell at me for them. It's okay though, I'm from Winnipeg. I can take it. If you actually do like what I write, give me a twitter follow here (@thrubeniuk): https://twitter.com/thrubeniuk
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