Jets Scoring Chances: 20 Games In

Travis Hrubeniuk
November 15 2013 05:04AM

We’re already right along that quarter point in the season, and the Jets have been able to show us some of the good, and some of the bad. I’ve been providing you with the scoring chances following every game this season, and now we'll look at how the guys have performed overall to date.

The Team's Scoring Chances

-

Total For

Total Against

Score

Overall

1343

1401

-58

Even Strength

1026

1117

-91

Despite the better play of late, the Jets haven’t really been able to move off the pace they had set for themselves at the eight-game point (they knocked about 5 chances off of each deficit). The Jets have not been a team to dominate many games, and have been on the wrong end of a few too many beatings. Despite their ability to drastically improve their shot totals from the beginning of the season, they haven’t exactly created a load of effective opportunities from them yet. If (that’s a big if) they can play more games like the one they had against San Jose, these numbers could change during the next quarter of the season. But if they keep following solid games with games like the one in Detroit, they will remain the same for the majority of the year.

The Forwards

Player

5v5 TOI

ES Chances For/20

ES Chances Against/20

ES Total/20

5 vs 5 CF %

Kane

279.92

4.79

5.43

-0.64

51.1%

Jokinen

264.65

4.61

3.93

0.68

51.9%

Peluso

64.53

1.24

3.41

-2.17

45.5%

Halischuk

165.0

3.76

3.88

-0.12

45.4%

Ladd

259.43

5.86

5.24

0.62

53.1%

Wright

172.1

3.02

3.72

-0.70

46.3%

Little

273.38

5.56

5.49

0.07

51.6%

Slater

61.1

2.95

5.24

-2.29

47.7%

Thorburn

61.7

1.30

2.59

-1.30

41.5%

Wheeler

272.13

4.34

5.95

-1.62

50.4%

Tangradi

155.5

3.47

3.47

0

55.8%

Setoguchi

232.45

6.45

4.56

1.89

53.7%

Scheifele

254.68

4.08

5.58

-1.49

46.7%

Frolik

258.5

3.56

4.72

-1.16

47.6%

The only real surprise I see here is Evander Kane. With all the shots he takes and his Corsi-For% being above 51%, I was expecting his chance count to be in the positives. He’s definitely one of those guys who I expect to see improve his standing in the long term. He doesn’t necessarily get put in situations to defend as often as other guys, and both of his current line mates are in the positive, so I would guess things would get better.

Blake Wheeler’s slow start is still affecting his numbers. He dug a pretty nasty hole for himself early in the year when absolutely nothing was going right, so a couple good games lately won’t be enough to fix it all. He’s back with the pairing of Ladd and Little again (who have been spectacular), and he looks to be contributing more as of late. His Corsi For% has just nudged itself above 50, so if he continues to trend upwards he will improve.

Right now this team is the story of two halves. Not the season, the team. The top two lines have been able to work quite efficiently and do their jobs. LLW continues to be matched up against tough opponents and will be expected to score. All three of them have positive Corsi numbers and two of them are on the positive side of the scoring chance ledger. The second line is also playing well, as Olli Jokinen has drastically improved from last year, Devin Setoguchi (while unfortunately not scoring much) has quite possibly been the most dangerous Jet all year, and Evander Kane is Evander Kane.

Meanwhile, the third and fourth lines have been victimized for the most part. The third line of Scheifele, Frolik and Halischuk has had their moments, but are still a line centered by a rookie with a pair of guys who aren’t exactly scoring juggernauts. They are responsible for limiting goals against and providing the odd spurt of offense, and as long as they aren’t picked apart they are okay. The fourth line though, has generally been abysmal. Eric Tangradi has somehow managed to survive his time down there, but the rest of the fourth line, two-minute guys haven’t exactly been impressive.

The Defense

Player

5v5 TOI

ES Chances For/20

ES Chances Against/20

ES Total/20

5 vs 5 CF %

Pardy

125.33

5.11

3.67

1.44

51.6%

Postma

95.13

2.94

3.36

-0.42

48.1%

Stuart

139.18

3.59

5.03

-1.44

45.3%

Trouba

116.15

3.79

4.99

-1.21

45.5%

Ellerby

61.35

6.19

3.91

2.28

52.4%

Clitsome

262.72

3.88

6.24

-2.36

51.9%

Byfuglien

364.48

4.77

5.93

-1.15

52.8%

Enstrom

340.32

4.76

3.82

0.94

50.1%

Bogosian

357.05

4.54

4.43

0.11

48.6%

Yes, the sample size is limited. I get that. But it is incredibly difficult not to be impressed by the work of Pardy and Ellerby. Both have been able to take great advantage of beneficial match-ups and to be blunt, do what Mark Stuart simply cannot. I’ve said this a countless number of times but the Jets need to find a way to avoid putting him back in when he is healthy.

Trouba will be an interesting case when he comes back. He has only played eight games and doesn’t have the best numbers out there, but remember he spent a chunk of time with Stuart. I would be interested in seeing how he could mesh with Byfuglien, but I still think the safe bet is putting him and Bogosian back together now that Bogo seems to have his feet back under him. (Hopefully that wasn’t 100% due to his pairing with Enstrom) There’s always the option of sending him down to the AHL, but I don’t think the Jets have much interest in doing that.

That would leave Grant Clitsome as the odd man out. For $2 million a year, that’s likely the last thing the Jets want to do, but at this point in time I don’t want to mess with Pardy and Ellerby at all. Let him rotate in when need be, but for now setting things up like that would be fine with me.

The one guy we are yet to see this year is Zach Redmond. Kevin wrote earlier this month that Zach needs someone to get hurt to really get a chance to show he wasn’t a one hit wonder, and I completely agree. He’s entering a contract year and there is just more competition coming up behind him, so there is a good chance that we may have seen the last of the one time superstar.

Conclusion

The Jets have played much better of late, but still have a long way to go if they want to take a run at the playoffs. Of highest importance will be continued success from players like Evander Kane and Blake Wheeler, but the third and fourth lines need adjusting for long term success.

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I write things, you read them. Then tend to yell at me for them. It's okay though, I'm from Winnipeg. I can take it. If you actually do like what I write, give me a twitter follow here (@thrubeniuk): https://twitter.com/thrubeniuk
Avatar
#1 Kevin McCartney
November 15 2013, 05:25AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
+1
6
props

I can't believe Grant Clitsome's numbers!! I feel so much better for constantly talking about how bad he is and how badly the Jets need to replace him.

Avatar
#3 Kevin McCartney
November 15 2013, 12:58PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props

haha Two people trashed my comment, but thanks to double-loading, I'm not sure if they don't like that I disparage Clitsome, or they don't think his numbers are so bad.

I choose to think they love every word I write.

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