I have a one almost-word reason why Eberle will be scoring goals at a stupid rate for the remainder of his time with the Oilers*: RNH.

Nuge will be feeding him sick passes for the rest of forever and Eberle has the hands to capitalize. And Nuge is only going to get better.

*Until he retires!!

I think he will put The Great One to shame and score 93 goals

Personally I don't care what kind of points any player puts up in a season. The only number I care about right now is 8th or better.

I HATE THIS WEBSITE JORDAN EBERLE IS A GOD I AM GOING TO GO LIVE UNDER A BRIDGE AND BAMBOOZLE TRAVELLERS AS THEY CROSS OVERHEAD BLOO BLOO BLOO BLOO

I'm pretty sure that Wanye will "lose" your paycheque for this article.

HOW DARE YOU PERSONALLY ATTACK EBERLE IN THE MANNER? YOU OBVIOUSLY HATE HIM AND WANT TO SEE HIM FAIL AND WRITING THIS ALL BUT ENSURES THAT WILL HAPPEN!.

DAMN YOU WILLIS!DAMN YOU TO HELL!

65 goals for ebs

This same methodology was trotted out before last season to suggest that Jones was going to fall off a cliff. On the contrary, he astounded and disgusted stats guys across the Oilogosphere throughout the year.

Why is it that those same people simply cannot fathom the fact that talent often overrides the logical argument? With another year's experience under his belt and (hopefully) more experienced linemates (*cough* Hall...*cough* Gagner), you could just as easly suggest Eberle will have another great season. Maybe, MAYBE he's just that good.

Numbers don't often capture the intangibles of an outlier, which Eberle could certainly be. I feel sad for people who can't appreciate the beauty of sport because they're so myopically focused "on the numbers". For the love of god man, what does your gut say?

boring stuff if all you want is stats. Willis' analysis is totally fine with me. I can disagree without being a pig.

36

When it's all said and done I imagine he'll be a 25 - 30 goal 60 - 70 point guy for his career. (baring league wide shifts in scoring).

We've got a Patrick Sharp on our hands, which is fantastic.

Like I said, only number we need be concerned about is 8th or better.

JW,

Why do you think it will be so hard for him to shoot more. He was 91st in SOG last year.

He and Bobby Ryan were the only 30-goal scorers with fewer than 210 shots, and Ryan had 204.

So let's say Eberle gets 210 shots next year and scores 34 goals.

Then he has a 16.2 SH%...I don't think that is unrealistic.

He will likely shoot more because he'll also avg more than 17:35/game this year.

If he plays 19 min/game and kept the same shots per minute played this year then he will be at 210.

Last year he averaged a shot every 7.6 minutes...If he plays 19 min and kept same average he'd be right around 210. Based on 80 games.

I agree his SH% likely goes down, but his total shots will go up.

50 goals!

Maybe i'm over simplifying, and 1 season probably isn't the best as far as sample size. But if the numbers show he is the best shooter in the game... maybe he is the best shooter in the game?

Eberle doesn't simply put the puck on the net, he puts the puck IN the net.

Great article, the argument is sound. I love Eberle as much as the next guy (and I sincerely hope he breaks Wayne Gretzky's goal scoring record next season), but it's a statistical prediction people it's not a damn condemnation of the guy...

Eb's is guaranteed to score more goals in 2012-13 than: 1.) me; 2.) you; and, 3.) everyone else on these boards combined.

Seriously, I think Eberle is in an enviable position because he'll have Hall, RNH, and the Yak feeding him for the foreseeable future and unless he gets snake bitten (literally, as in, "Jay Fester snuck a cobra into my left skate"), he'll easily pot in 20-30 goals a season and most likely, be a 30-40 goal scorer.

He should be able to pot around 35 to 40 goals, all things considered. A healthy season from his linemates is a big plus. New coach playing him against tougher opposition this year may hinder him a little, but with a beefed up defence (assuming Whitney is healthy and Schultz/Klefbom make the transition good) it may balance out. I wanna see LOTS of big stretch passes coming from our end to send Ebs in. He has great hands and can pick his shots, so give him some clean passes and have a good season with healthy linemates and I know we will be putting him in the same brackets as Tavares, Stamkos, Malkin etc from this year on.

Very nice, all ready starting with the negative uh? Jesus christ, so what next Halls only going to score 10 goals, RNH only going to get 30 pts? You're watching the emergence of a 35-40 goal sniper. Not a lot of guys in the NHL have a shot like he does and he's only going to get stronger and faster. And now throw Yak in the mix.....wow.

You're not looking at all the variables, and are being a bit unrealistic in the ones you've chosen.

I'll agree Eberle's shooting percentage was high last year, at an unmaintainable level, but I still think he averages about 13-14% for his career. Why?

1) Eberle is a sniper. The sheer accuracy and quality of his shots put him in the top 5% of NHL forwards IMO in terms of sniping ability. Perhaps 20-25 players in the league can have this distinction. I can't think of an Oiler with that nice of a shot in the last 15 years.

2) Eberle isn't a shoot-first player. He's not going to fire a ridiculous number of shots/game or shoot from poor angles (like Hall and Paajarvi). If you watch him play he'd much rather try to maintain possession or pass in hopes of creating a better Iopportunity than blindly throw the puck at the net. It's what makes him such a finesse player. It's like a Hemsky-like trait, except he's much more aware of when to shoot.

2) Eberle plays with RNH now. The quality of scoring opportunities he's seeing now, especially on the powerplay, is oodles higher than those he was seeing with Horcoff and Gagner. That shooting percentage is bound to stay >10% thanks to this.

I think Eberle scores on pace for 30+ at the very least, as long as he remains the #1LW and on the #1 PP unit.

More shots and a similar shooting percentage. Ebs will probably always maintain a high shooting percentage because he's a great one-shot scorer on the PP. The Oilers as a team will hopefully generate more shots because they'll be a better team in all 3 zones (oh god I hope so).

Have you consider throwing in unmeasurable factors. Like as to how Ebs thinks the game. I find that he is very selective as to when and how he shoots the puck. He tends to make the most of his opportunities and always seems to come through. This goes back all the way to Junior and the world championships. Just a thought but I find Ebs is more about using his head than just shooting for the sake of shooting. If he can't get the shot he wants he tends to hold on and look for the pass or get in a better position.

@ JW

I am with you, shooting percentage will come down slowly, but hopefully shots will increase as he get more ice time and better players around him.

I am in the 30-40 goal range estimate.

I see a modest drop in shooting percentage and and modest increase in shot rate to compensate.

I also suspect he will feed that shooting percentage off the powerplay, where as others have said, the Nuge boosts Eberle's shooting percentage with some ridiculous passes that Eberle rarely misses scoring on.

if Eberle was to see a significant decrease in his PP time or have to play with another centre for long stretches, then I could see a dip below 30 goals.

Can you segregate his shooting percentage at evens vs PP?

Never reading another one of your articles......its off-season and you are dropping ebs shooting %

After picking 1st for last 3 yrs....last thing I need to hear.

I think he can repeat the %. He's got unreal patience and he picks his shots very well.

Ebs potted 34 goals and 76 points. What would his totals of been had Hall and RNH not missed 20 games?

RNH was rookie and still was dominant. Its gonna be very scary this year watching RNH with more confidence, size ans skill set up Ebs.

Ebs will also have Yak and Schultz to play with and take some of the top defense pairings of his shifts.

Its is very possible for a 40-45 goal season with a mid 90`s point total.

Eberle is a sniper with deceitful moves and a very accurate shot. If he doesn't have a shot to make he won't take it as he has the ability to dangle or pass. With team offense improving I can see him getting more shots per game on average with his shooting percentage in his current range. He's a wonderful player. Very smart.

Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

More shots and a similar shooting percentage. Ebs will probably always maintain a high shooting percentage because he's a great one-shot scorer on the PP. The Oilers as a team will hopefully generate more shots because they'll be a better team in all 3 zones (oh god I hope so).

I definitely see Willis' point, but this is a great one, too. With Eberle getting gravy 1PP minutes, his shooting percentage should remain ridiculous as long as the PP stays ridiculous. Probably not reasonable to expect him to repeat last year's number, but I don't think 15% is far-fetched.

I wasn't talking about him scoring any more or less, just a explantion as to the high %. I honestly think he will stick around the 75 point mark. Likely have flucuation between goals and assits but still sitting at the same level.

So, how does Daniel Sedin get so many goals with a low shooting percentage? Is he just taking a ton of shots at the net that aren't going in? Or is he being sublimely set up by Hendrick?

@ Willis:

Would you predict a similar drop-off in point production from Eberle's linemates?

Surely Eberle's potential drop in shooting percentage would have some measurable impact on his linemates' assist totals.

I'm not sure if you can predict an increase in the number of assists from RNH, for instance, if you can't predict an increase in goals from his linemates.

Oiler Domination to Follow

Eberle has FOUR factors that could help him maintain his current goal scoring pace and possibly exceed it.

1)He plays with the Nuge(Shooting percentage increased 5%- because the Nuge is simply the best)

2)More Minutes - he should see an incrase of 15-20% in icetime (more shots+more goals)

3)Oilers Powerplay - Eberle sits in the sniper slot - across from the Nuge(resulting in beautiful goals)

4) Justin Scultz - the puck will get up the ice quicker, more breakout passes and the Powerplay should be better

So I am hoping Eberle hits 35 goals this year due to these factors, is 40 hoping for too much? I would love to see Captain Clutch in the playoffs or play in meaningful games in March, and I think Semin would help our team get to the playoffs - and when he disappears, Captain Clutch would carry the team on his back. Heres hoping Oiler Management Adds to our 29th place team.

JW although you are accurate in your assessment.....that being shots taken times shooting %, one needs to also factor in the goalie you are shooting at, and his save %.

I suspect that JE shots taken will also be attached to his ice time, he did not get first line ice time last year, so he could actually lead the NHL in shots taken.

I think the more telling stat would be the quality of the shots taken.....hard to measure this one!

Slightly off topic, but I am seeing (in these comments and in other threads) mention of Klefbom. My understanding is that he stays in SEL for another year. Has that changed?

Thats true and honeslty how many players in the NHL maintain an annual 75+ point a season avg? People here need to be realistic, a lot seem to think in a year or two our whole top line is going to have 100 point players on it and be good for a decade. Its just not realistic. I'm not saying it isn't possible for maybe a season but very unlikely. I also never see Hall hitting 80 points, hes a wrecking ball not a sniper and thats okay he won't need to put up those kind of points.

I feel the same expectations are being put on Gagner. I'm fine with the 45-50 points a season as a second line center. I just think he needs to bring a little more defensively and physically to make this team more competitive. Also I met Gagner and they have him listed at 5'11", no way I'm 5'6" and we were almost the same height.

Oilers agree to a one year deal with Peckham apparently.

More like Peckham accepts qualifying offer.

If he didn't he would have been awarded less in arbitration..... is that even possible?????

@Dman I dunno, do they have that long to accept? Apparently it's for $1.075 million. Seems reasonable I suppose.