Best shot in the game? No. Best backhand in the game? Absolutely!!!

One thing to factor though, is that Eberle played less minutes then the vast majority of top line players.

It would be totally resonable to see his minutes increase by 20% next year, which should give close to 20% more shots.

No injuries to Ebs or Nuge would be a big help. So will the 20+ min/game that he'll be playing compared to last season. His shooting percentage will drop for sure, but he will end up with way more shots.

@ JW

Maybe, I'm sure he could find an extra 2 minutes of shelterd time for Ebs if he really wanted.

That said, Eberle and Hall are 3rd year pro's now and should be starting to play power vs power.

I am having deja Vu.

JW, didn't you write a similar article about Brule a few years ago. You stated that he wouldn't sustain his incredible shooting percentage after his 17 goal campaign.

The response was similar... hence the deja vu.

The extrapolation on the Brule supposition was that the Oil should "sell high" since Brule had some good trade value at the time and could get a good return. In retrospect that would have been pretty friggin smart. You've taught me to look at shot percentages seriously now.

So Feb and March Smyth and Horcoff's time goes down. Right? They were sheltering the kids?

Eberle's totals those months 14 goals in 28 games.

@ Bucknuck

Just like Jones wouldn't be close to his 18 goals again?

shots....definitely more shots. With a healthy squad and proper puck feeding from the D, and Hodichuck/Eager being unleashed to set the rules of touching the kids, we will see more shots from the top 2 lines.

I'd guess but how many games are we expecting the teams to play this season?

the difference is that Brule was clearly and anomaly, but Ebs should maintain a top 20 shooting percentage in the league, if not higher for the duration of his next contract at least.

Is it really that far fetched that Eberle ends up with 50 more shots next year, thus making up for a lower shooting percentage? Put up 230 shots with a 13% average gives him 30 goals.

Barring injury I don't think it's far fetched that the kid comes up with 30+.

I sort of expect that eventually Yakupov takes the toughs and Eberle crushes seconds. Not next year though.

What happens when you look at players by age instead of years played?

His shooting percentage may be high and shots low, but watching the games he didn't take very many shots from outside areas. Most of the shots were from "high percentage areas." I know this doesn't fall into a measurable stat but rather seeing alot of his goals.

I HATE THIS WEBSITE JORDAN EBERLE IS A GOD I AM GOING TO GO LIVE UNDER A BRIDGE AND BAMBOOZLE TRAVELLERS AS THEY CROSS OVERHEAD BLOO BLOO BLOO BLOO

I hate this website too Wanye, can't quote anymore.

Also, your shift button appears to be stuck again.

I'd also be curious to see this done with shots/60 instead of per game. I'm not suggesting it would necessarily tell a different story, but I'm curious.

@bleedingoil @OB Jr

I am not comparing Brule to Eberle. I am comparing the irrational angry reaction by the people who read the article.

Jones didn't maintain his shooting percentage, just as predicted. He did get more shots and his goal totals reflect that.

For the record, my bet is that Eberle has a career shooting percentage in the top ten, and his shots go up, so that he stays as a 30 goal man most of his career.

JW,

Why do you think it will be so hard for him to shoot more. He was 91st in SOG last year.

He and Bobby Ryan were the only 30-goal scorers with fewer than 210 shots, and Ryan had 204.

So let's say Eberle gets 210 shots next year and scores 34 goals.

Then he has a 16.2 SH%...I don't think that is unrealistic.

He will likely shoot more because he'll also avg more than 17:35/game this year.

If he plays 19 min/game and kept the same shots per minute played this year then he will be at 210.

Last year he averaged a shot every 7.6 minutes...If he plays 19 min and kept same average he'd be right around 210. Based on 80 games.

I agree his SH% likely goes down, but his total shots will go up.

I don't think it's far fetched that a kid with 2 years under his belt ends up shooting more.

James Neal, 171, 200, 222(pro-rated), 329

Giroux 67 in 42, 145, 169, 242

Perry 98 in 56, 194, 200, 283

My mistake, I guess year 4 is when we should expect a shot increase.

What if Eberle benefited from the absence of Hall and RNH?

He was now "the guy." He was the ones taking the shots as opposed to them. There are only so many shots that can be taken in a game.

It may have inflated his stats.

I think I was looking at shots/60 more in terms of general expectations for players than something with Eberle specifically.

There are players who've had shot total jumps, around years 3 or 4, but I'd like to know how much of that is increased ice time and how much an increase in shot rate.

50 goals!

Agree with Koolaid.

50 goals if he shifts to the middle as the Oilers second line center. If he stays on the right side next season. he pots 31.

One more shot every 2.73 games would get him to 210. I think with extra 90 seconds a night he could do it...

Either way his SH% will drop, but if he shoots more it won't drop too far.

Ryan Jones did this the past two years..

2011...18 goals on 126 shots for 14.3% 2012... 17 goals on 137 shots for 12.4%

While he dropped almost 2% his total goals only went down by one...

JW,

Is there a way to calculate SH% on quality scoring chances? One thing I have notices with Ebs, especially compared to Hall or other Oilers, that when he is in a good position to score, he does. He hits the open corners, raises the puck when needed or takes that extra second before shooting. He also rarely takes pointless shots from bad angles (ala Moreau)that many of the guys with high shot totals do.

Players with 250+ shots are usually shooting from everywhere and that decreases they SH% a fair amount and can be deceiving compared to a player who waits for quality scoring chances to shoot.

Then would it not be quality of scoring chance SH% then just plain SH%. IS than not why dmen on the power play have low single digit SH%?

Based on that theory, I don't think Ebs shooting % goes down as much as you are suggesting, and maybe only drop by 2% or so.

With all of your comparisons, one thing they fail to do is show that most of those players that were wingers, ended up getting a centre to play with as talented as RNH after their first year and that centre having the likelihood to improve each year for the next few years.

I would suggest that with increased playing time as well as RNH improving even more at his sick passing, the Ebs could easily increase his shots by 15%, most of those additional shots being of a quality scoring nature. Even if his shooting position dropped 2%, I can see him equalling last years goal total.

I obviously back that up with mathematical statistics because I have no idea if a fairly accurate SH% on quality scoring chances even exists.

The other major factor is who plays the left wing. If it is Hall, Ebs will likely get less shots than if Hall was on another line and Ebs is that lines primary shooter.

In the long run, I see Ebs as a 30G 50A type of player. Hall more of a 35G 35A player and RNH a 15G 70A type of player. Yes I think RNH will be the teams leading scorer for many years to come.

I really dont care if his goals are at 26 but his assists go up by another 20.

Maybe i'm over simplifying, and 1 season probably isn't the best as far as sample size. But if the numbers show he is the best shooter in the game... maybe he is the best shooter in the game?

Excellent. I look forward to it. I'm leaning towards PP time being a bigger factor than most expect.

"It doesn't sound far-fetched, but how often does a 22-year old who saw no increase in shots/game between years one and two see a big spike in season three?"

Because he was on a team that finished 30th and 29th. What happens when we're 15th or 10th best. Shots taken should go up ... NO?

@DieHard

Yeah it would be interesting to see what happens to comparable players if overall team shots go up. I have nothing to back this up but werent the oilers one of the worst for being outshot last year?

I think it will depend a lot on the type of team game Kreuger hopes to impliment .

Oilers are presently like a golf game - DRIVE FOR SHOW AND PUTT FOR DOUGH . We have the firepower over last few seasons with Yakupov in that perception , but still lack the middle game and finishing elements (short game ,chipping and putting so to speak ) . So far only J.Schultz (unknown quantity as yet ) has been added . Other than the drive for show (our young forward elites ) not much else has been done to upgrade the rest of our game .

I don't know what he's going to do for shots but I do know this, whenever he takes a shot, in my mind he has a good chance of scoring. It's a goal-scorer's shot. . . reminds me of Mike Bossy. Not in velocity. Just that he seems to instintively seems to know where to shoot and the goalie usually has to move to make a save.

If he doesn't beat his 34 goals of last year, his assist total is going to increase. Oiler's are going to score more goals, so I figure he's going to be more than a point per game player.

42 goals next year.

Eberle is money, that's why his shooting % is high. Look at those goals on the highlights; he's not doing the ol' Heatley clapper everytime the puck is in his proximity, Eberle picks his corners and scores a lot on dekes. Not to mention the years of easy tap-ins by virtue of being THE gifted right hander to recieve all of the Nuge's passes on the PP. Hall-L, Yakupov-L, Nuge-L. Gagner and Hemsky both shoot right, but I would call them the pass first players.

In thinking about the PP, how interesting would it be if Yakupov could man the point if his shot and release are the real deal. Eberle-RNH-Hall up front, J.Schultz-Yakupov on D. That is ridiculous for the next 15 years.

We were 2nd last in shots per game and difference in shots for and against.

Shots for game average was 29.7 and we were 26.7.

Shot differential was -4.

So we ever get back to average we are looking at roughly 3 shots per game or 246 more shots in a year. Take 8% of that and you get 20 more shots for Eberle and that's without him changing much at all other than the team being better.

I concur. Right O my friend.

As some have noted, there is a big flaw in this Willis piece as he has not done the analysis factoring in TOI.

Willis writes so many pieces for so many places, sometimes his analysis misses out key factors, like in this case, ice time. Quantity over quality.

Which makes this Willis post a whole bunch of handwaving, since TOI was not part of the analysis.

And in addition to TOI, one should probably look at zone starts and quality of competition.

For some who claims to be an advanced stats guy like Willis, this piece is rather shallow and shoddy.

The pageview whore won out over the advanced stats guy in this case.

@KOOLAID and @QUICKSILVER

50 is quite a jump. There are only 10 active players in the league that have had one 50 goal season. If we be honest with ourselves and remove the lucky seasons (Lecavalier, Perry, Hejduk) and then those who may not see it again (Jagr, Heatley, Iginla) that leaves 4 active players. He would be in a very elite group of players. It is possible, but for him to be our new 50 goal scorer, we need RNH, Yak or Hall to be our new setup man. For him to get 50 goals, we need to see 100 assists from a couple players. We have the skills, but in todays league, it will be a tough job to pull off.

@gcw_rocks

Nice article. But You should have used this video

-----> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYPcYuLynkA