Winnipeg Jets Minor League Equivalencies

Jonathan Willis
February 05 2012 09:16PM

One of the things that was unclear for a long time was how much offense a player coming from junior, college or the AHL could be expected to bring with him. Thankfully, now we have a line in the sand – Gabriel Desjardins’ league equivalencies. Desjardins sat down and calculated what percentage of their offense in other leagues players typically take to the NHL with them.

It gives us an interesting tool to examine the Winnipeg Jets’ prospects outside the NHL with.

First off, I’d also like to credit Derek Zona for the idea – over at Copper and Blue they’ve been offering monthly updates on Oilers prospects for a long time using Desjardins’ numbers.

Without further ado, here are Jets’ forwards currently outside the NHL.

Player League GP G A PTS NHL PTS/82
Fredrik Pettersson SEL 45 12 20 32 45
Mark Scheifele OHL 31 18 27 45 35
Spencer Machacek AHL 44 11 23 34 28
Ivan Telegin OHL 29 14 18 32 26
Carl Klingberg AHL 38 12 15 27 26
Vinny Spanorani NCAA 25 4 15 19 26
Adam Lowry WHL 36 12 25 37 24
Jimmy Bubnick WHL 53 24 29 53 24
Ben Maxwell AHL 20 4 8 12 22
Austen Brassard OHL 49 25 19 44 21
Roley Holzapfel AHL 26 8 6 14 19
Patrice Cormier AHL 36 9 9 18 18
Eric O'Dell AHL 23 5 5 10 16
Daultan Leveille NCAA 21 3 6 9 14
Nicklas Lasu SEL 36 3 5 8 14
Kenndal McArdle AHL 27 6 4 10 13
Jason Gregoire AHL 28 4 6 10 13
John Albert AHL 41 4 8 12 11
Yasin Cisse NCAA 17 1 2 3 6
Jordan Samuels-Thomas NCAA 0 0 0 0 0

The averages are a helpful line in the sand, but that doesn’t mean Fredrik Pettersson is going to score 45 points over an 82-game NHL season any time soon. He’s been a pretty good scorer over his last two seasons in Sweden, but an AHL stint sandwiched between them was decidedly disappointing.

Mark Scheifele’s numbers are okay, but not mind-blowing, given his draft selection. Still, there’s little doubt that he’s the most offensively gifted Jets prospect right now, despite the fact that he’s younger than most of the other guys on the list.

There are other decent prospects in the system, but there aren’t a lot of high-end scorers at any level. After Scheifele and the Pettersson mirage, Spencer Machacek projects to score 28 points over a full NHL season.

The picture on defense is a little better.

Player League GP G A PTS NHL PTS/82
Paul Postma AHL 38 9 24 33 31
Will O'Neill NCAA 27 1 23 24 30
Zach Redmond AHL 43 5 14 19 16
Andrey Zubarev KHL 31 5 2 7 15
Zachary Yuen WHL 45 8 18 26 14
Brett Festerling AHL 32 3 9 12 14
Julian Melchiori OHL 44 2 22 24 13
Arturs Kulda AHL 33 4 7 11 12
Brennan Serville NCAA 26 0 7 7 9
Kendal McFaull WHL 48 4 8 12 6
Ben Chiarot AHL 14 1 1 2 5
Aaron Harstad NCAA 20 0 3 3 5
Peter Stoykewych NCAA 22 0 3 3 5
John Negrin AHL 26 0 1 1 1

Paul Postma’s numbers have been pretty good all down the line. He scored 84 points in his final season of junior, and well there was a slight bump in Postma’s rookie AHL season he’s on pace for his second strong performance in the minors.

Will O’Neill is a rather interesting case. A late pick back in 2006, O’Neill is in his fourth college season and in his sixth post-draft year after spending two seasons in the USHL. He’s had three straight strong offensive seasons, but college defenders are a funny thing – sometimes they bring all their offense, sometimes none of it when they turn pro. O’Neill’s not a guy I’d feel comfortable betting on, but he keeps cranking out the numbers.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 Matt Eichel
February 06 2012, 09:51AM
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Great read! I enjoyed it and at the same time I was not surprised at how the Thrashers did such a poor job in the draft. With projections like this it's no wonder they're in Winnipeg now. Cheveldayoff has hopefully started an upwards trend with Scheifele, but another top 10 pick would be nice for the Jets moving forward to make some noise in the prospect realm of things.

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#2 Guy
February 06 2012, 02:51PM
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@Matt Eichel

To be fair all of their recent 1st round picks are on the team and look decent. This team has major depth issues. Scheifele is the only prospect that I think will ever be a top 6 forward.

I like the idea of Klingberg and Telegin on a line though. Good physical players who can skate.

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#3 MC Hockey
February 11 2012, 05:59PM
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Great article...and I want to see the FlamesNation folks do this (are you reading Kent Wilson?). But I was surprised to see Schiefele's number as I still thought he would come out to a 50 or 60-point equivalent in the NHL...maybe in his next junior or AHL season I guess. Many top young players don't hit their stride until years 3, 4 in the NHL so it unfortunately may be 5 years before Schiefele is a top-30 scorer in the NHL (if ever).

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